Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Western Balkans, with an expected GDP growth of 3.3 percent in 2024, up from 2.6 percent in 2023, suggesting a stable investment environment [21][22]. Core Insights - Economic growth in the Western Balkans is primarily driven by domestic demand rather than external factors, with significant contributions from consumption and investment [21][22]. - The labor market is improving, with employment rates reaching historical highs, although challenges such as labor shortages and skills mismatches persist [21][22]. - Poverty reduction continues, albeit at a slower pace, with an estimated annual decline of about 1 percentage point [21][22]. - Fiscal deficits are projected to widen in 2024, with the average fiscal deficit expected to reach 2.5 percent of GDP [23][24]. - Inflation rates are decreasing, with regional averages showing a decline from 4.4 percent to 3.2 percent by mid-2024 [23][24]. - The current account deficit is expected to widen to 5.6 percent of GDP in 2024, driven by sluggish export growth and elevated energy costs [24][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview - The Western Balkans economies are navigating a complex environment, with growth expected to accelerate to 3.3 percent in 2024, supported by domestic demand and expansionary fiscal policies [21][22]. 2. Growth Acceleration - Growth is driven by stronger consumption and investment, with Serbia projected to lead at 3.8 percent growth in 2024 [21][22]. 3. Employment Trends - Employment reached a historical high of 48.5 percent in June 2024, with significant job creation in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina [21][22]. 4. Poverty Reduction - Poverty reduction is ongoing but at a slower rate, with long-term unemployment affecting many households [21][22]. 5. Fiscal Policies - Fiscal deficits are set to increase, with the average expected to rise to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2024, driven by broad-based spending increases [23][24]. 6. Inflation Trends - Inflation is decelerating, with a regional average of 3.2 percent by mid-2024, influenced by easing commodity prices [23][24]. 7. Financial Stability - Credit growth rebounded in 2024, reaching 9.4 percent, with stable asset quality in the financial sector [23][24]. 8. External Sector Dynamics - The current account deficit is projected to widen, with significant contributions from Albania, North Macedonia, and Serbia [24][25]. 9. Growth Outlook - The growth outlook is positive, with consumption and investment expected to play a more significant role in the coming years [24][25]. 10. Spotlight on Migration - Migration remains a critical issue, with a significant portion of the population residing abroad, impacting labor markets and economic dynamics [28].
西巴尔干定期经济报告第26号，2024年秋季：保持增长势头（英）
Shi Jie Yin Hang·2024-11-11 20:30