Investment Rating - The report assigns an Overweight rating to the company, with a target price of RMB 10 [1][3] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the global kitchenware market, leveraging its product development capabilities, brand strength, and flexible supply chain [2][3] - The company has achieved rapid revenue and profit growth, with revenue increasing from RMB 675 million in 2021 to RMB 1,583 million in 2023, representing a CAGR of 53.1% [3][4] - Adjusted net profit grew from RMB 32 million in 2021 to RMB 243 million in 2023, with a CAGR of 177% [3][4] - The company's gross margin improved from 18.7% in 2021 to 35.7% in 2023, and further to 41.6% in Q1 2024 [3][4] Business Model and Strategy - The company operates primarily through a DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) model, with Amazon, Walmart, and Tmall being its key sales platforms, accounting for over 85% of revenue [3][42] - The company has a diversified product portfolio, with over 2,500 SKUs covering cookware, kitchenware, and drinkware [29][38] - The company has transitioned from OEM to ODM and finally to its own brand, CAROTE, which now accounts for 90% of its revenue [3][36] - The company has a flexible, asset-light supply chain model, similar to SHEIN, which allows for rapid product turnover and cost efficiency [4][29] Market Position and Competitive Advantages - The company ranks among the top five in the online cookware market in key regions, including China (4th), the US (2nd), Western Europe (3rd), Southeast Asia (2nd), and Japan (3rd) [4][29] - The company has a strong presence in the US market, which accounted for 60% of its revenue in Q1 2024, followed by China at 19% [3][46] - The company's product development capabilities are a key competitive advantage, with an average development cycle of 50 days for core cookware products, significantly faster than industry standards [32][37] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 2,232 million in 2024 to RMB 4,020 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 33% [19][20] - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 350 million in 2024 to RMB 643 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 35% [19][20] - The company's ROE improved significantly from 44.9% in 2021 to 166.8% in Q1 2024, driven by higher profitability and asset turnover [55][56] Industry Overview - The global kitchenware market is expected to grow from USD 107 billion in 2023 to USD 120.5 billion in 2028, with a CAGR of 2.4% [4][63] - Cookware, kitchenware, and drinkware are the main segments, with cookware accounting for 28.9% of the market in 2023 [4][63] - The US, China, and Western Europe are the largest markets, accounting for 16.7%, 25.5%, and 22.8% of the global cookware market, respectively [68][69] Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks related to third-party platform operations, international trade friction, and increasing industry competition [4] - The company's reliance on Amazon and other e-commerce platforms exposes it to potential changes in platform policies and fees [4][42]
卡罗特首次覆盖报告：出海新势力，未来乘风起