造纸轻工行业2025年投资策略：政策保驾护航，行业拐点向上

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the overall paper industry for 2025, primarily due to the anticipated increase in domestic production capacity [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a potential improvement in the wood pulp supply-demand balance in 2025, driven by recovering demand in Europe and China, alongside a slowdown in supply capacity expansion [3]. - For the specialty paper sector, the trend of consolidation towards leading companies continues, with expectations of rising pulp prices benefiting these firms [3]. - The home furnishing industry is expected to recover due to stabilizing real estate conditions in China and a potential rebound in the U.S. housing market following interest rate cuts [3]. Industry Market Performance - The light industry manufacturing sector has seen a decline of 8.9% year-to-date as of November 1, 2024, with specialty paper and bulk paper sectors down 6.7% and 4.4% respectively [5][6]. - The custom and finished home furnishing sectors have also experienced declines of 6.6% and 6.1% respectively [5]. Pulp and Paper Sector Insights - The report notes a divergence in prices between softwood and hardwood pulp, with the price gap exceeding normal ranges, indicating potential future adjustments based on macroeconomic conditions [13][16]. - The report anticipates that the domestic demand for wood pulp will trend upwards in 2025, supported by significant fixed asset investments in the paper industry [35]. Specialty Paper and Household Goods Insights - The specialty paper sector is expected to see increased competitive advantages for leading companies as they expand their self-sufficient pulp production capacities [3]. - The home furnishing sector is projected to benefit from strategic measures taken by leading companies to capture market share amid recovering demand [3]. Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with high self-sufficiency in wood pulp, specifically naming Sun Paper as a key player [3]. - For the specialty paper sector, it suggests investing in Xianhe Co. and Wuzhou Special Paper due to their strong market positions [3]. - In the home furnishing sector, it recommends companies like Oppein Home and Kuka Home, as well as U.S. companies such as Craftsmanship Home and Mengbaihe, which are expected to benefit from market recovery [3].