煤炭行业周报：电煤日耗开启上行，焦煤中期需求有望改善

Investment Ratings - Key companies rated as "Buy": Shaanxi Coal, China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, Huainan Mining, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Jinkong Coal, Shanxi Coking Coal, Electric Power Investment Energy, Huayang Co., Pingmei Energy, China Coal Energy, Shanmei International, and others rated as "Hold" [1] Core Insights - Thermal coal prices remain stable with inland daily consumption gradually increasing. As of November 8, the Qinhuangdao thermal coal closing price was 858 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2 CNY/ton. The long-term contract price for November 2024 is 699 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous month but down 2.0% year-on-year [2][6] - Coking coal prices have slightly weakened, with Shanxi coking coal priced at 1700 CNY/ton as of November 8, down 60 CNY/ton week-on-week. The coking coal price index is 1674 CNY/ton, down 41 CNY/ton week-on-week, while the cost index is 1809 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][21][24] - The report suggests that thermal coal demand is expected to improve in the medium term, driven by winter stocking needs as power plants prepare for increased consumption [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of November 8, the thermal coal port price in Qinhuangdao was 858 CNY/ton, with a long-term contract price of 699 CNY/ton for November 2024, unchanged from the previous month but down 2.0% year-on-year [2][6] - The inventory at northern ports was 26.28 million tons, an increase of 410,000 tons week-on-week. Coastal provinces' terminal user inventory was 35.40 million tons, up 1.009 million tons week-on-week [8][9] 2. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have shown a slight decline, with Shanxi coking coal at 1700 CNY/ton, down 60 CNY/ton week-on-week. The coking coal price index is 1674 CNY/ton, down 41 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][21][24] - The report indicates that the demand for coking coal may improve in the medium to long term due to potential benefits from infrastructure and real estate projects [3][4] 3. Downstream Changes - The average daily consumption of thermal coal in coastal provinces was 1.766 million tons, down 20,000 tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw an increase to 3.309 million tons, up 100,000 tons week-on-week [9][20] - The report highlights that steel mills are experiencing slight fluctuations in both volume and price, indicating a stable demand environment [27] 4. Futures Market - The futures prices for both coking coal and coke have declined, reflecting the current market conditions [30] 5. Transportation - The report notes that both sea and land transportation prices have continued to rise, with the Daqin line's coal transport volume increasing week-on-week [31][32]