有色金属行业：继续推荐铜铝板块，能源金属底部修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, with specific companies such as Jincheng Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum receiving an "Accumulate" rating [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the approval of an additional 60 billion yuan in local government debt limits, along with 40 billion yuan in new special bonds, will significantly enhance local debt resources by 100 billion yuan. This change in debt management strategy is expected to support basic metal prices in the short term [3]. - The report notes that while the market had anticipated these stimulus policies, the basic metal prices remained stable post-announcement. However, the Ministry of Finance provided positive guidance, indicating a more robust fiscal policy for the upcoming year, which is likely to keep basic metal prices stable [3]. - The report suggests that the aluminum sector is supported by supply disruptions and high costs, with a current average profit of approximately 700 yuan per ton for electrolytic aluminum [4]. - The lithium carbonate price has seen a slight increase, with the average price around 75,400 yuan per ton, driven by a decrease in production from salt lakes due to lower temperatures [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance Review - The non-ferrous metals sector increased by 3.47%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.04 percentage points [14]. 2. Industrial Metal Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Aluminum - Aluminum prices are rising due to supply disruptions and high costs, with the price of alumina continuing to increase [4][19]. - The average price of A00 aluminum ingots has risen, and inventory levels are at a historical low [19][24]. 2.2 Copper - Copper prices are fluctuating, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as the U.S. election results and domestic fiscal policies. The report indicates that copper prices are likely to remain stable due to tight supply and steady demand [4][26]. - The average price of electrolytic copper has increased, with a current price of 77,100 yuan per ton [15][26]. 3. Precious Metals Fundamentals Tracking - Gold prices have experienced a decline following the U.S. election results, with a temporary drop to 2,650 USD per ounce before recovering slightly after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [2][3]. 4. Energy Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals Tracking 4.1 Lithium - The price of lithium carbonate has increased slightly, with production expected to decrease by 1.26% due to seasonal factors [2][3]. - The report suggests that despite short-term price fluctuations, the lithium sector remains attractive for investment due to its low valuation [2]. 5. Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy developments and market dynamics, particularly in the context of the ongoing recovery in energy metals and the potential for capacity adjustments in various sectors [3][4].