农林牧渔行业报告：猪价连续小降，10月产能增长放缓

Investment Rating - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" and the rating is maintained [2]. Core Viewpoints - The industry index for agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery increased by 6.04% last week, ranking 18th among 31 primary industries [9][10]. - Concerns over Sino-US trade relations have led to significant increases in sectors such as aquaculture and food security, while the pig farming sector saw smaller gains due to a slight decline in pig prices [4][10]. - The report suggests that the current market supply of pigs may not be as high as expected, with a completion rate of 104.18% for large-scale enterprises in October [15][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The agricultural sector has rebounded, with the industry index rising 6.04%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 [9][10]. 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs: Prices Continue to Decline, Capacity Growth Slows - The average price of pigs is 17.1 CNY/KG, down 1.58% from the previous week, with market supply remaining sufficient despite strong selling reluctance among smallholders [4][12]. - October saw a slow growth in breeding stock, with a month-on-month increase of 0.39% and 0.56% reported by different sources [14][15]. - The report indicates that the growth in pig production capacity may not meet market expectations, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.20% in breeding stock as of September [15][16]. 2.2 Broilers: High Prices for Chicks, Weak Terminal Demand - The price of broiler chicks in Yantai is stable at 4.4 CNY per chick, with a profit of 1.5 CNY per chick, while the average price of broiler chickens is 3.80 CNY per jin, leading to a loss of 1.2 CNY per chick [5][24]. - The report highlights a shortage of imported breeds due to limited overseas imports and challenges in domestic sales, suggesting a focus on both upstream import enterprises and domestic breed development [24]. 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices remain stable at 6290 CNY/ton, while soybean prices have increased by 4.1% to 3921 CNY/ton [25]. - Cotton prices have slightly decreased to 15247 CNY/ton, and corn prices have dipped to 2190 CNY/ton [25].