美国10月宏观数据点评：美国经济的现在与联储降息的未来

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 25bps to a range of 450-475bps on November 8, 2024[1] - The FOMC statement in November included three key changes regarding employment and inflation, indicating a cautious approach to future rate adjustments[1] - The Fed is expected to lower rates again by 25bps in December 2024, with a potential decrease in the frequency of rate cuts to approximately once per quarter in 2025[1] Group 2: Employment Data - In October 2024, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 12,000, significantly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 100,000[2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1%, consistent with previous values[2] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months has declined to 104,000, down from an average of 159,000 in the previous three months[2] Group 3: Economic Growth Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 2024 was reported at 2.8%, slightly below the expected 2.9%[3] - Consumer spending contributed 2.46% to the GDP growth, with a quarterly increase of 3.7%[3] - Private investment's contribution to GDP fell to 0.07%, indicating a slowdown in investment activity[3] Group 4: Inflation and Price Trends - The PCE inflation rate for Q3 2024 decreased to 1.5%, down from 2.5% in the previous quarter, while the core PCE inflation rate was 2.2%[3] - The Fed's commitment to achieving a 2% inflation target remains firm, despite recent fluctuations in inflation data[1]