万联证券：万联晨会-20241112

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 2.03%, and the ChiNext Index up by 3.05%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 25,071.28 billion yuan [1][6] - In terms of industry performance, the electronics, computer, and media sectors led the gains, while coal, banking, and real estate sectors lagged behind. Concept stocks such as sci-tech new shares, state-owned fund holdings, and advanced packaging also performed well, whereas sectors like Hainan Free Trade Zone, dairy, and community group buying faced declines [1][6] Important News - As of the end of October, M2 balance grew by 7.5% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month. M1 saw a decline of 6.1%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 1.3 percentage points, marking the first increase in growth rate this year. In the first ten months, RMB loans increased by 16.52 trillion yuan, while the total social financing scale increased by 27.06 trillion yuan, which is 4.13 trillion yuan less than the same period last year [2][8] - The People's Bank of China plans to enhance counter-cyclical monetary policy adjustments to create a favorable monetary and financial environment for stable economic growth and high-quality development. This includes promoting the coordination of investment and financing functions in the stock market and improving the channels for foreign investors to invest in the domestic capital market [2][8] Policy Insights - The recent approval of an increase in local government debt limits by 60 billion yuan aims to replace hidden debts, which will be implemented over three years. This is expected to significantly reduce local interest expenses, with an estimated saving of around 600 billion yuan over five years [9] - The government is expected to implement more proactive fiscal policies to stimulate demand and support economic growth, particularly in the real estate market and infrastructure development [10]