轻工制造2024Q3造纸综述：供需压力、盈利探底、龙头成长

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the paper industry, indicating a positive outlook for leading companies in the sector [1]. Core Insights - The paper industry is experiencing supply-demand pressure, with profits hitting a low point. In Q4, lower-priced pulp is expected to improve costs, while leading paper companies are collaborating to stabilize prices. A slight decline in prices is anticipated in Q4, with profit margins remaining stable [1][6]. - The report highlights that the industry is facing significant supply pressure, with over 1 million tons of new supply expected in 2024. This includes contributions from major players like Huatai and Nine Dragons [1][8]. Summary by Sections Pulp Paper Sector - In Q3, high-cost pulp inventory has raised costs, leading to a decline in paper prices. The average price for double glue paper and copper plate paper in Q3 was 5445 and 5546 yuan/ton, respectively, showing a year-on-year change of -2.1% and +4.1% [1][7]. - The report notes that the global pulp market is seeing new production lines coming online, with demand weakening, particularly in Europe, where consumption of bleached needle pulp fell by 8.2% [1][6]. White Cardboard - The average price for white cardboard in Q3 was 4393 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. However, supply pressure continues to grow, with an expected addition of around 1.5 million tons of new supply in 2024 [1][8]. Specialty Paper - Specialty paper prices are showing mixed performance, with consumer goods prices remaining firm while decorative paper prices are expected to decline slightly. The report anticipates a small decrease in prices due to cost reductions and new capacity coming online [1][9]. Key Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Sun Paper (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 1.24 yuan for 2024 - Xianhe Co. (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 1.52 yuan for 2024 - Huawang Technology (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 1.25 yuan for 2024 - Wuzhou Special Paper (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 1.23 yuan for 2024 [4].