Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook under the current supply-demand tightness and the potential for industry value reassessment due to electricity market reforms and long-term interest rate equity mapping [3][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the recent notification to standardize market pricing behavior will help rationally allocate profits across the industry chain, suggesting that "lowering electricity prices" is not the core issue nor the only path to cost reduction [2][3]. - The notification highlights the importance of accurately reflecting the value of electricity as a commodity, aligning with the new power system's role in the industry chain [3]. - The report predicts that the overall risk of a decline in long-term coal power contract prices is limited, with potential regional differentiation expected in 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on high-quality hydropower companies such as Changjiang Electric Power and Chuan Investment Energy, as well as selecting thermal power companies with advantageous locations and attractive dividends like Guodian Power and Shenneng Shares [3][7]. - For nuclear power, it suggests paying attention to long-term implicit returns, recommending China General Nuclear Power and China Nuclear Power [3][7]. - In the renewable energy sector, it advises waiting for policy-driven improvements and selecting high-quality stocks with a significant proportion of wind power, recommending Yunnan Energy Investment [3][7]. Market Behavior and Profitability - The report provides insights into the profitability of electricity sales companies in Guangdong, estimating a total profit of 3.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, which accounts for 6.7% of the total profit in the electricity and heat production and supply industry in Guangdong, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.5 percentage points [3][6]. - It details the retail electricity volume and profitability of different types of sales companies, indicating that independent sales companies accounted for 41.3% of total profits in the first half of 2024 [3][6]. Key Company Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, maintaining an "Overweight" rating for several firms across hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power, and renewable energy sectors, with specific earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2023 and projections for 2024 and 2025 [7].
《规范电力市场交易行为》点评：规范市场报价行为，降电价已非核心矛盾
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-11-12 01:15