银行角度看10月社融：居民端投放边际回暖，流动性有所改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The total social financing (社融) increased by 1.4 trillion yuan in October, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%, although this represents a decrease of 448.3 billion yuan compared to the same month last year [4][8] - Government bonds continue to be the main support for social financing, accounting for 75.2% of the new financing in October, while corporate bonds and stock financing saw a slight decrease [8] - The report indicates a marginal recovery in household lending, supported by policy measures and adjustments in mortgage rates, which have helped reduce early repayments [6][8] Summary by Sections 1. Social Financing Growth - Social financing increased by 1.4 trillion yuan in October, with a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the previous month [4][6] - The structure of social financing shows that government bond financing remains dominant, with a significant year-on-year decrease in new government bond financing due to high base effects from the previous year [8] 2. Credit Situation - New RMB loans in October amounted to 298.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 184.9 billion yuan, but the decline is less severe than in previous months [6][8] - The report highlights that household lending has shown relative strength, aided by policy support and adjustments in mortgage rates [6][8] 3. M1 and M2 Trends - The report notes a convergence in the decline of M1, while M2 continues to show an upward trend, indicating improved liquidity in the market [6] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks and large banks such as Agricultural Bank, Bank of China, and others, while also recommending city commercial banks with strong fundamentals and low valuations [6][8]