宏观大类日报：10月金融数据略超预期，关注后续政策传导

Group 1: Market Analysis - The U.S. election results indicate a potential Trump administration with Republican control of both houses, which may lead to increased inflation due to proposed tax cuts and tariffs[2] - The M2 money supply growth rate rebounded to 7.5% as of October, signaling an increase in financial market activity[6] - The total social financing scale increased by 27.06 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2024, down 4.13 trillion yuan year-on-year[6] Group 2: Commodity Insights - Precious metals are recommended for long positions, while other commodities are viewed neutrally[2] - The oil market is expected to face oversupply pressure due to OPEC's increased production and accelerated energy transition[4] - The agricultural sector, particularly the oilseed segment, is experiencing strong performance due to supply tightness and La Niña effects[4] Group 3: Economic Policy and Trends - The Chinese government plans to manage local government debt effectively, reducing hidden debt from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028[2] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, with a focus on both consumption and investment[6] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points reflects a cautious approach, with future cuts expected to be more gradual[3]