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2024年10月金融数据点评：化债政策加力影响新增贷款少增，10月金融数据显示稳增长、稳楼市力度加大
Dong Fang Jin Cheng·2024-11-12 02:10

Loan and Financing Data - In October 2024, new RMB loans amounted to 500 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 238.4 billion, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline[1] - The total social financing scale in October was 1.3958 trillion, down 448.3 billion year-on-year[1] - The M2 money supply grew by 7.5% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] Economic Implications - The decrease in new loans is primarily attributed to intensified debt reduction policies, with local government financing platforms repaying or replacing existing loans[2] - Excluding the impact of debt reduction policies and last year's high base for government bond financing, the actual data for new loans and social financing in October shows improvement, indicating increased financial support for the real economy following recent monetary policy adjustments[2] Future Outlook - A peak in government bond issuance is expected in the last two months of the year, with a potential 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion in long-term funds into the banking system[3] - New loan growth is anticipated to remain robust, particularly with accelerated disbursement of loans for "white list" real estate projects[3] Sector-Specific Insights - Corporate loans showed weakness, with new medium- and long-term loans at 170 billion, down 212.8 billion year-on-year, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline[5] - Residential loans improved, with new short-term loans increasing by 49 billion, up 154.3 billion year-on-year, driven by supportive policies in the real estate sector[7] Social Financing Trends - In October, total social financing decreased by 448.3 billion year-on-year, primarily due to a significant drop in government bond financing, which fell by 514.2 billion year-on-year[8] - The stock of social financing grew at a record low of 7.8%, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the financing environment[8]