国君化工|24Q3盈利环比走弱,周期磨底静待拐点——三季报总结

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The basic chemical sector experienced a decline of 0.76% from January 1, 2024, to October 31, 2024, ranking 22nd among primary sub-industries. In contrast, the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices rose by 14.90% and 9.09%, respectively, resulting in excess returns of -15.67% and -9.85% for the basic chemical sector [1] - The industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with supply-side capital expenditures significantly down year-on-year but still at historical highs. Demand recovery is expected to be gradual, and while the overall supply-demand relationship is weak, there are investment opportunities in certain sub-sectors due to supply-side disruptions or catalysts [3] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the basic chemical sector achieved operating revenue of 1,855.253 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.45%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 104.171 billion yuan, down 8.45%, with a net profit margin of 5.61% [2] - In Q3 2024, the sector's operating revenue was 626.431 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.38% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.33%. The net profit for Q3 was 30.170 billion yuan, down 16.34% year-on-year and 23.92% quarter-on-quarter [2] Sub-Industry Analysis - Among 33 sub-industries, 20 reported year-on-year net profit growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with notable recoveries in dyeing chemicals, nylon, and chlor-alkali. However, Q3 still showed pressure, with only 13 sub-industries recovering year-on-year and just 4 showing quarter-on-quarter profit recovery [2] - The report highlights that in Q3 2023, over 50% of the sub-industries in nylon, membrane materials, and titanium dioxide reported losses, while most other sub-industries had loss ratios between 10% and 30% [2] Future Outlook - Looking ahead to Q4 2024 and the next two years, despite a lackluster "golden September and silver October," certain rigid supply industries are expected to show strong profit resilience, such as MDI, titanium concentrate, phosphate rock, and sucralose. The basic chemical sector may gradually emerge from the cyclical bottom by 2025, with recommendations for leading companies with cost advantages and quality firms with growth trends [3]