国君煤炭|疆煤聚焦“就地转化”,外运补充内陆供给

Industry Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Viewpoints - Xinjiang's coal resources are abundant with significant growth potential in demand [1] - Xinjiang's strategic position in the national energy supply system is increasingly prominent [1] - Xinjiang's coal production has grown rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.5% from 2018 to 2023 [1] - Xinjiang accounts for 42% of the newly approved coal production capacity nationwide since 2020 [1] - Under current steady-state price assumptions, the economic feasibility of transporting coal from Xinjiang is limited [2] - Xinjiang coal will mainly be used for local conversion, with transportation to inland markets serving as a supplement [3] - By 2030, the upper limit for Xinjiang coal transportation is estimated to be 250-300 million tons [3] - Xinjiang's coal supply and demand are expected to remain balanced, with production reaching over 700 million tons by 2030 [3] Detailed Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Xinjiang is a crucial inland energy base with strategic reserves [1] - The predicted coal reserves in Xinjiang are 2.19 trillion tons, accounting for about 40% of the national total [1] - Coal production in Xinjiang increased from 213 million tons in 2018 to 457 million tons in 2023 [1] Economic Feasibility of Coal Transportation - The total cost of transporting coal from Xinjiang increases rapidly with distance and freight costs [2] - Although the pithead price of Xinjiang coal is lower than in other regions, it shows a higher elasticity to market price fluctuations [2] - Under current conditions, transporting coal from Xinjiang to Gansu is economically advantageous, while transportation to other regions is less feasible [2] Future Outlook - By 2030, Xinjiang coal transportation is expected to account for less than 30% of total production [3] - The demand for Xinjiang coal will be split into transportation (250 million tons/year), power generation (200 million tons/year), coal chemical projects (225 million tons/year), and other applications (50 million tons/year) [3] - As coal production in central and eastern regions declines, Xinjiang coal will become an important supplement to the market [3]