原油及聚酯产业链月报（2024年11月）：原油预期偏空，看好下游利润修复空间

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish outlook on crude oil prices while being optimistic about the profit recovery potential in downstream sectors [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that Brent crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $60 and $90 per barrel in 2024, with a short-term support level adjusted to $65 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions providing some price support [3][9]. - OPEC+ has extended its additional production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day until the end of December, which is expected to influence global oil supply dynamics [3][25]. - The report highlights a significant decline in China's crude oil processing volume, which fell by 5.4% year-on-year in September, indicating a weakening demand [3][14]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review and Outlook - Brent crude oil closed at around $72 per barrel at the end of October, reflecting a market divided between weak fundamentals and geopolitical support [3]. - The report predicts that the geopolitical conflicts will continue to provide some support for oil prices in the short term, despite a long-term bearish outlook driven by demand factors [3][9]. Commodity, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate cuts, with a 25 basis point reduction in November, which may further impact oil prices [3][28]. - The U.S. dollar index rose to 104.1 in October, reflecting a 3.34% increase from the previous month [3][34]. Polyester Industry Chain - The report notes that the price spread between RBOB gasoline futures and WTI crude oil futures has decreased but remains above the historical average [3][21]. - The overall profit margin for the polyester industry chain has contracted, with the PX-PTA-spun polyester chain showing a loss of approximately 81 yuan per ton [3][45]. Conclusion and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while crude oil prices may face downward pressure, there are opportunities for profit recovery in downstream sectors, particularly in the polyester industry [1][3].