建材、建筑及基建公募REITs周报：化债政策出台促进发展，基建链或直接受益

Investment Rating - Non-metallic building materials: Buy (Maintain) [5] - Construction and Engineering: Overweight (Maintain) [5] Core Insights - The total debt replacement scale is 12 trillion yuan, significantly alleviating local government debt pressure. By 2028, the total amount of hidden debt to be digested by local governments will decrease from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan, with the average annual digestion amount reduced from 2.86 trillion yuan to 460 billion yuan, less than one-sixth of the original amount [15][16] - The shift in debt replacement strategy emphasizes both risk prevention and development promotion. This large-scale replacement measure will ease local governments' immediate debt pressure and reduce interest expenses, potentially saving around 600 billion yuan over five years. It will also help local governments streamline funding chains and enhance development momentum, allowing resources previously used for debt repayment to be redirected towards promoting development and improving livelihoods [16][17] Summary by Sections Industry Research Update - The debt replacement policy will effectively alleviate local government debt pressure, releasing more resources and policy space for development. This is expected to improve the physical workload of the infrastructure chain, which has been below expectations due to slow funding. Industries such as cement are likely to benefit directly, with recommendations for companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement, and attention on Tianshan Cement [18] - The reduction in local government debt pressure will significantly lower the risk of bad debt provisions for construction central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises that have extensive business dealings with local governments. Asset prices are expected to be revalued positively, with recommendations for China State Construction and attention on Sichuan Road and Bridge [18] Market Performance and High-Frequency Data Tracking - The CITIC building materials index rose by 3.93%, with the other specialized materials index showing the largest increase at 9.41%, while the cement index had the smallest increase at 2.45%. The CITIC construction index increased by 6.42%, with the landscaping engineering index showing the largest increase at 9.51% [23] - High-frequency data indicates that the national average price of PO42.5 cement is 426.23 yuan/ton, up 1.55% month-on-month, and the national cement enterprise shipment rate is 53.80%, up 3.07 percentage points [3] Major Coverage Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Recommendations include Puyang Refractories (overseas expansion and domestic substitution of active magnesium oxide), Huayun Emergency (completion of actual controller change with state-owned empowerment), Beixin Building Materials (real estate chain recovery and diversified business development), and China Chemical (good cash flow and rising chemical prices) [3][22]