HEILAN HOME(600398) 长江证券·2024-11-12 03:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][4]. Core Views - The company's main brand is experiencing a decline in offline sales due to a weak retail environment, but this impact is expected to gradually dissipate. The company is positioned as a quality stock with strong growth potential across multiple business lines, supported by orderly expansion of new businesses [4][3]. - The projected net profit for the company from 2024 to 2026 is estimated at 2.23 billion, 2.54 billion, and 3.05 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -25%, +14%, and +20%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are 13, 12, and 10 times, with a dividend yield of approximately 7% in 2024 [4][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenues of 3.889 billion, a decline of 11% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 271 million, down 65% year-on-year. The first three quarters saw total revenues of 15.259 billion, a decrease of 2% year-on-year [3][4]. - The main brand's revenue fell by 27% in Q3, with offline store sales significantly impacted. The company closed 101 franchise stores, continuing a trend of store closures [3][4]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin decreased by 1.1 percentage points due to lower margins from e-commerce and non-core businesses. The sales expense ratio increased by 5.8 percentage points to 24.8%, primarily due to fixed costs associated with direct store openings [4][3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve stable growth in the future, driven by strong growth potential across multiple business lines and orderly expansion of new businesses. The company has high free cash flow, strong performance stability, and a significant surplus in undistributed profits, indicating a robust dividend-paying capacity [4][3].