家电以旧换新政策专题：政策效果显著，稳健向好可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the home appliance industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the old-for-new policy has significantly boosted home appliance sales since August 2024, with expectations for improved performance in Q4 2024 [2] - Looking ahead, the positive trend in the home appliance sector is expected to continue into 2025, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and stimulating domestic demand [2] - Key companies to watch in the home appliance sector include Haier Smart Home, Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Vatti Corporation, Robam Appliances, Stone Technology, and Feike Electric [2] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Implementation and Impact - The State Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have launched a policy to support the replacement of old appliances, allocating approximately 300 billion yuan for this initiative [6] - The policy provides subsidies for seven categories of home appliances, with 15% for secondary energy efficiency products and 20% for primary energy efficiency products, capped at 2,000 yuan per item [6] - As of October 15, 2024, over 2 million consumers applied for the subsidy, leading to sales of 14.62 million appliances and 69.09 billion yuan in sales [8] 2. Sales Performance - In September 2024, sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 20.5% year-on-year, with a notable improvement in overall retail sales [8][10] - The retail sales growth rate for home appliances improved significantly in August and September 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 28.6% in September [10] - Fourteen regions in China saw retail sales growth exceeding 30% for major appliance categories during August and September [13] 3. Channel Performance - Offline sales of air conditioners showed the most significant improvement, with a year-on-year growth of 75.7% in the last weeks of September [15] - Online sales for air conditioners also surged, with a 81.6% increase in September [17] - The average prices of major appliances have risen due to the subsidy policy, indicating a shift in product structure [19][21] 4. Future Outlook - The home appliance sector is expected to see improved performance in Q4 2024 and into 2025, driven by strong terminal sales and positive trends in production and shipment [29] - The government is likely to continue implementing consumer stimulus policies, which will further support the home appliance industry [32] - Export demand is anticipated to remain resilient, with expectations for growth in North America and emerging markets [33][36]