2024年10月金融数据点评：融资需求依然偏弱

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In October 2024, new loans amounted to 500 billion RMB, a decrease from 738.4 billion RMB in the same month last year, indicating weak financing demand[1] - Total social financing (社融) in October was 1.4 trillion RMB, down from 1.84 trillion RMB in October 2023, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline[3] - M2 money supply reached 309.7 trillion RMB at the end of October, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, while M1 showed a decline of 6.1%[1][2] Group 2: Loan and Financing Trends - Individual loans increased by 160 billion RMB, slightly improving due to easing in the real estate sector and lower mortgage rates[1] - Corporate loans saw an increase of only 130 billion RMB, indicating continued weak financing demand from businesses[1] - The decline in social financing growth to 7.8% in October is attributed mainly to reduced government bond net financing and credit[3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to perform well, with anticipated government bond issuance reducing uncertainty in the fiscal landscape[4] - The forecast for the 10-year government bond yield is around 2.05%, while the 30-year yield is expected to reach 2.2%[4] - The expectation for new loans in 2024 is approximately 18 trillion RMB, which is a decrease of about 4 trillion RMB compared to the previous year[3]