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有色金属行业周报:重磅政策出台支持地方政府化债,实体经济回暖利好工业金属
CHINA DRAGON SECURITIES·2024-11-12 03:30

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Insights - Recent policies supporting local government debt replacement and a recovering real economy are favorable for industrial metals [1]. - The victory of Trump in the U.S. presidential election may lead to significant economic growth in the U.S., impacting inflation and interest rates, which could create uncertainty for gold prices in the long term [1][13]. - The approval of a resolution to increase local government debt limits in China is expected to alleviate debt pressure and enhance investment in technology, consumption, and infrastructure, benefiting the demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [1][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Review - From November 4 to November 8, the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index rose by 3.47%, with industrial metals increasing by 3.28% and precious metals decreasing by 3.66% [6]. - The top five gainers in individual stocks included Yingluohua (61%), Galaxy Magnetics (48%), and Liyuan Co. (33%) [7]. 2. Precious Metals - Following Trump's election, the U.S. economy may experience significant growth, leading to increased inflation risks and uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, which could affect gold prices [13]. 3. Industrial Metals - The National People's Congress in China approved a resolution to increase local government debt limits, which is expected to boost demand for industrial metals [17][18]. - As of late October 2024, China's electrolytic copper monthly production was 979,800 tons, with a slight decrease of 0.1% [19]. - The price of SHFE aluminum contracts was reported at 21,700 yuan per ton as of November 8, 2024 [22].