周度经济观察：内外事件落定，风险偏好抬升

Group 1: Economic Policy and Debt Management - The recent National People's Congress meeting approved a plan to replace 60 trillion CNY of local government debt over three years and 40 trillion CNY over five years, indicating a shift towards stabilizing growth amid local government debt pressures[2] - The debt replacement aims to alleviate local governments' financial burdens, with a total of 84 trillion CNY arranged over three years to reduce hidden debt levels[3] - Despite the debt replacement, the significant fiscal gap from the past three years may not be fully addressed, and the multiplier effect on the economy is expected to be low[5] Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with a notable increase in individual investors entering the market, reflecting improved risk appetite[14] - The divergence in market performance is attributed to the overall friendly policy environment, with A-shares nearing previous highs while other markets lag behind[14] - The recent rise in market sentiment is linked to the easing of extreme risk aversion following the announcement of supportive policies at the end of September[15] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Indicators - October's Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures[5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October was 0.3% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting challenges in consumer price recovery[6] - The total social financing in October was 1.3958 trillion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, but the growth rate has slowed, indicating weak corporate investment sentiment[11] Group 4: U.S. Economic Outlook and Global Impact - Trump's election victory and the Republican sweep are expected to elevate U.S. economic and inflation expectations, potentially impacting global markets[20] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%-4.75% aligns with market expectations, but concerns about inflation persist[21] - The anticipated policies under Trump's administration, including tax cuts and deregulation, may boost U.S. economic growth but could negatively affect China's export activities[22]