策略观点：美国大选与中国政策

Macro Economic Overview - Recent policy shift in China towards strong monetary easing has led to a significant rebound in economic activity, with high-frequency economic activity index rising from 0.87 in September to 1.02 in October, and GDP growth rate expected to increase from 4.8% in the first three quarters to 5% in the fourth quarter [7][11] - The manufacturing and services PMI have returned to expansion, indicating improved business activity and demand, while deflationary pressures have slightly eased [7][9] Technology Sector - The technology sector has seen a mild rebound, driven by new AI terminal products and increased capital expenditure from cloud service providers, with recommendations to focus on supply chains related to smartphones, AI PCs, and MR terminals [1][6] - Notable companies recommended for investment include Xiaomi Group (1810 HK), BYD Electronics (285 HK), and AAC Technologies (2018 HK) [1][6] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector remains cautiously optimistic, with strong demand related to AI continuing, while non-AI demand is in a slow recovery phase [1][6] - Recommendations include Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH) and Northern Huachuang (002371 CH), with a focus on companies benefiting from AI capital expenditure growth [1][6] Healthcare Sector - The healthcare sector is expected to outperform the market due to macroeconomic improvements and supportive policies for innovative drugs and medical equipment [2][6] - Recommended companies include WuXi AppTec (2359 HK), BeiGene (BGNE US), and Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) [2][6] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is anticipated to recover gradually, supported by new product launches and market share growth, with recommendations for companies like China Resources Beer (291 HK) and Proya Cosmetics (603605 CH) [2][6] - The food and beverage sector shows signs of recovery, with beer production experiencing positive growth for the first time since early 2023 [2][6] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector is experiencing a positive seasonal trend, with increased foot traffic and orders, and expectations for continued sales growth leading up to the Lunar New Year [4][6] - Recommended companies include Geely Automobile (175 HK) and Li Auto (LI US) [4][6] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector shows optimism with a significant increase in contract sales among key developers, with a 72% month-on-month increase in October [4][6] - Recommended companies include China Resources Land (1109 HK) and Greentown Service (2869 HK) [4][6] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is expected to see continued growth in net profits and new business value, with a focus on life insurance companies benefiting from policy expectations [5][6] - Recommended companies include China Life (2628 HK) and Ping An Insurance (2318 HK) [5][6] Capital Goods Sector - The capital goods sector is viewed positively, with engineering machinery companies maintaining a positive outlook for exports and capacity expansion [5][6] - Recommended company is Zoomlion Heavy Industry (1157 HK) [5][6]