银行行业月报：10月货币增速回升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][18]. Core Insights - In October, the total social financing (TSF) stock grew by 7.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%. The new TSF added was 1.4 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease [5][7]. - The net financing scale of government bonds reached 1.05 trillion yuan in October, a year-on-year decrease of 514.2 billion yuan, primarily due to the high base effect from special refinancing bonds issued at the end of 2023 [5][7]. - The growth rate of M2 was 7.5%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.7%, while M1 showed a year-on-year decline of 6.1% but rebounded by 1.3% month-on-month [14][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Social Financing Growth - In October, the TSF stock reached 403.45 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% [5][7]. - New loans amounted to 298.8 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 184.9 billion yuan, contributing to the decline in new TSF [5][7]. 2. Improvement in Household Credit Growth - The balance of RMB loans in financial institutions was 254.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [7][10]. 3. M2 Growth - The total RMB deposits increased by 600 billion yuan in October, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [11][14]. - Household deposits decreased by 570 billion yuan, while non-financial corporate deposits fell by 730 billion yuan. Fiscal deposits increased by 595.2 billion yuan, and deposits from non-bank financial institutions rose by 1.08 trillion yuan [11][14]. 4. Investment Strategy - The rebound in M1 and M2 growth rates, alongside a decline in deposit growth, indicates a shift of private sector funds towards risk assets in the capital market, driven by fiscal spending [15][16]. - The report suggests that the overall asset quality of the banking sector is expected to improve, maintaining the stability of sector valuations, with a focus on the defensive attributes of bank stocks in the short term [15][16].