电力行业24Q3总结：绿电反转需关注碳排放双控政策进展

Investment Rating - The report rates the electrical equipment industry as "Positive" as of November 12, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the hydropower sector's profit increased by 19% year-on-year in Q3 2024, benefiting from abundant rainfall during the flood season [1]. - The green energy sector also saw a 19% year-on-year profit increase in Q3 2024, although photovoltaic prices remain under pressure, while improved wind conditions contributed to the recovery of overall green energy performance [1]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing challenges in the green energy sector, particularly regarding the pressure on photovoltaic prices and the need for policy advancements in carbon emission controls to facilitate a turnaround [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the average coal price in inland ports remained stable, ranging from 780 to 950 yuan per ton, slightly down from 855 to 1070 yuan per ton in the same period last year [1]. - The average on-grid electricity price for thermal power companies decreased in Q3 2024 [1]. - Hydropower faced extreme drought conditions in September, and nuclear power generation was affected by maintenance, leading to a decline in output [1]. Sector Performance - The wind energy sector experienced a significant improvement in wind resources in Q3 2024, with a notable reduction in the year-on-year decline of wind power utilization hours, leading to a recovery in performance for wind power operators [1]. - Despite the recovery in wind energy, photovoltaic operators continue to face declining average electricity prices, indicating ongoing challenges in photovoltaic consumption [1]. Future Focus - The report suggests two potential solutions to address the challenges in the green energy sector: leveraging the electricity market to promote flexible resource growth and utilizing the carbon market to distribute transformation costs across society [1]. - Positive policy changes are noted in both areas, indicating a potential for profit recovery in the green energy sector, which is currently viewed as undervalued [1].