10月社融数据点评：政策效果显现，社融结构好转

Group 1: Social Financing Overview - In October 2024, the incremental social financing scale was 1,395.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 448.3 billion yuan compared to the same period last year[3] - The total social financing stock reached 403.45 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, slightly down from the previous value of 8%[3] - New credit under the social financing framework was 298.8 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year decrease of 184.9 billion yuan, but an improvement from a decrease of 562.7 billion yuan in the previous month[3] Group 2: Credit Demand and Structure - Resident loans increased by 160 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year increase of 194.6 billion yuan, marking the first year-on-year increase since February[4] - Corporate loans saw a new addition of 130 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 386.3 billion yuan, indicating a continued weak demand for corporate financing[4] - Government bond issuance in October was 1,049.6 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year decrease of 514.2 billion yuan, reflecting a slowdown in special bond issuance[5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Outlook - The M1 and M2 monetary aggregates showed signs of recovery, with year-on-year growth rates of -6.1% and 7.5%, respectively, leading to a narrowing of the M1-M2 gap to -13.6%[6] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization due to effective policies, with a notable recovery in resident loans and corporate bond issuance[7] - Risks remain, including the potential for economic recovery to fall short of expectations and the risk of tighter overseas monetary policies[7]