10月金融数据：M1增速拐点基本确认

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In October 2024, M1 growth rate was -6.1%, improving from -7.4% in the previous month, indicating a potential turning point for M1 growth[7] - M2 growth rate increased to 7.5% in October, up from 6.8% previously, reflecting a significant rebound[6] - Total social financing (社融) increased by 1.4 trillion RMB in October, but this was a year-on-year decrease of approximately 448.3 billion RMB, with a month-end growth rate of 7.8%[2] Group 2: Loan and Credit Trends - New loans in October amounted to 500 billion RMB, which was a year-on-year decrease of about 238.4 billion RMB, with a stock growth rate of 8%[1] - Corporate loans increased by 130 billion RMB in October, but this was a year-on-year decrease of approximately 386.3 billion RMB, indicating insufficient credit support for enterprises[2] - Household loans rose by 160 billion RMB in October, a year-on-year increase of about 194.6 billion RMB, driven by improved consumer sentiment and policies promoting consumption[1] Group 3: Government and Policy Implications - Government bonds increased by 1.05 trillion RMB in October, a year-on-year decrease of about 514.2 billion RMB, primarily due to last year's higher issuance base[3] - The issuance of 2 trillion RMB in special bonds approved in early November is expected to support social financing data in November and December[3] - Future monetary policy is anticipated to maintain a loose stance, with potential reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions expected to exceed 100 basis points in 2025[9]