2024年10月社融数据点评：“提前还贷”来到历史低位

Group 1: Financial Indicators - In October 2024, the social financing stock growth rate decreased to 7.8% from the previous 8.0%, with new social financing of 1.40 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 448.3 billion yuan[6] - The M2 growth rate rebounded to 7.5% in October, up from 6.8%, while M1 growth improved to -6.1% from -7.4%, indicating a narrowing of the M1-M2 gap[15] - The net financing of local special bonds in October was 576.4 billion yuan, with cumulative net financing exceeding 98% of the annual new quota[6] Group 2: Credit Trends - New credit in October was 500 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 238.4 billion yuan, with corporate medium and long-term loans down by 212.8 billion yuan[10] - The early repayment rate for loans has reached a historical low, indicating a slowdown in the private sector's "balance sheet reduction" process[19] - Residents are beginning to leverage credit, with short-term loans increasing significantly due to seasonal factors and consumption policies[10] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Non-bank deposits continued to show high growth, reflecting a shift of funds towards higher short-term investment returns in the capital market[19] - The proportion of margin trading in A-share trading volume has reached a historical high, indicating increased market activity[19] - The narrowing of the M1-M2 gap is seen as a sign of effective implementation of incremental policies, although sustainability remains a concern as fiscal impulses may slow down[15]