JHCC(002484) 财信证券·2024-11-12 09:03Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Jianghai Capacitor (002484 SZ) [1] Core Views - The company's profitability declined year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with operating income down 6 33% YoY to 3 539 billion yuan and net profit attributable to the parent company down 9 71% YoY to 494 million yuan [3] - In Q3 2024, the company's operating income was 1 175 billion yuan, down 9 94% YoY and 10 48% QoQ, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 147 million yuan, down 20 98% YoY and 30 20% QoQ [4] - The AI server market is expected to drive growth in the company's aluminum electrolytic capacitor business, with the global AI server market projected to grow from 21 1 billion USD in 2023 to 31 79 billion USD in 2025, representing a CAGR of 22 7% [5] - The company's film capacitor and supercapacitor businesses have broad application prospects, particularly in new energy vehicles and photovoltaic energy storage, with ongoing projects progressing well (79 51% and 82 37% completion rates respectively) [5] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's gross margin in the first three quarters of 2024 was 25 05%, down 1 08 percentage points YoY [3] - For 2024-2026, the company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 5 126 billion yuan, 6 143 billion yuan, and 7 115 billion yuan, representing YoY growth rates of 5 80%, 19 85%, and 15 82% respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 722 million yuan, 902 million yuan, and 1 076 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with YoY growth rates of 2 15%, 24 85%, and 19 29% respectively [7] - The company's EPS is forecasted to be 0 85 yuan, 1 06 yuan, and 1 26 yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18 53x, 14 85x, and 12 44x [7] Business Prospects - The company's MLPC and solid-liquid hybrid capacitors are expected to expand rapidly in high-end markets, driven by the growth of the AI server market [5] - The film capacitor business is focusing on new energy and electric vehicle applications, with ongoing technical upgrades and capacity expansion [5] - The supercapacitor business is contributing solutions in areas such as global grid intelligent transformation, comprehensive energy storage, and green manufacturing [5]