家居行业：换新时刻，关注需求格局估值共振

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [1] Core Insights - Demand Improvement: The industry is experiencing a boost from government subsidies, with a conservative estimate of demand increase around 12%. Since Q3, home decoration subsidies have been progressively implemented, with discounts typically ranging from 15% to 20% and a maximum subsidy of 2000 yuan per item. The National Development and Reform Commission indicated ongoing efforts to enhance policies to stimulate consumption and investment [3][19] - Structural Improvement: The concentration trend in the industry has stagnated in 2023, benefiting leading companies from subsidy policies, which may support performance recovery. Major listed companies have seen their excess growth rates decline significantly due to a weak real estate and consumption environment, but the long-term trend towards concentration remains intact [4][21] - Valuation Improvement: New home sales turned positive in October, supporting the recovery of industry valuation. The correlation between home sales and the valuation of the home furnishing sector suggests that a sustained improvement in real estate sales could lead to a restoration of valuation levels [4][21] Summary by Sections Demand Improvement - The report estimates that the subsidy policies could lead to a demand increase of approximately 12%, 17%, or 24% under conservative, neutral, and optimistic scenarios respectively [3][19] - The home decoration subsidy has already driven sales of around 190 billion yuan, with a demand pull coefficient exceeding 5x in many regions [17][19] Structural Improvement - The report notes that the concentration trend in the indoor furniture retail market has stagnated, with the top nine companies (CR9) maintaining their market share while smaller brands have seen slight increases [4][22] - The report emphasizes that the recovery of consumer purchasing power and enhanced support for leading companies through subsidy policies could lead to significant performance recovery in the future [4] Valuation Improvement - The report highlights that the valuation of the home furnishing sector is closely tied to real estate sales, with a noted increase in new home sales in October [4] - The potential for valuation recovery is linked to the sustained improvement in the real estate market, which could positively impact the home furnishing sector's valuation levels [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of quality enterprises: 1. Customization leaders with strong domestic sales such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and others 2. Soft furniture leaders benefiting from existing stock logic 3. Emerging industries encouraged by policies, such as smart home products [5]