Crystal-Optech(002273) 海通证券·2024-11-12 09:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for Crystal Optech (002273) is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Views - Crystal Optech's Q3 2024 performance showed significant growth with revenue reaching 4.71 billion yuan (YoY +32.69%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 862 million yuan (YoY +96.77%) [5] - The company's Q3 gross margin improved to 36.71%, an increase of 8.14 percentage points YoY, driven by increased production efficiency, new product launches, and cost reductions [6] - Crystal Optech is deepening its collaboration with a major North American customer, with potential growth driven by AI-driven optical upgrades and AR glasses [6][7] - The company is strategically positioned in the AR glasses market, with breakthroughs expected in reflective waveguide mass production [7] Financial Performance and Forecast - Crystal Optech's Q3 2024 revenue was 2.055 billion yuan (YoY +21.19%, QoQ +56.91%), with net profit attributable to shareholders of 435 million yuan (YoY +66.99%, QoQ +75.30%) [5] - The company's 2024-2026 revenue is forecasted to be 6.23 billion yuan, 8.023 billion yuan, and 9.367 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit expected to reach 1.004 billion yuan, 1.334 billion yuan, and 1.642 billion yuan [7] - EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.72 yuan, 0.96 yuan, and 1.18 yuan, respectively [7] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 27.8% in 2023 to 31.5% by 2026 [8] Market and Industry Analysis - Crystal Optech's stock price has shown strong performance, with a 52-week range of 8.61-23.88 yuan and a total market capitalization of 31.887 billion yuan [2] - The company's valuation is supported by its strategic positioning in the AR and AI-driven optical upgrade markets, with a PE ratio of 25-30x for 2025, implying a fair value range of 24.00-28.80 yuan [7] - Compared to peers, Crystal Optech's 2024E PE ratio of 30.08x is slightly below the industry average of 31.61x, indicating potential undervaluation [9] Operational Highlights - Crystal Optech's Q3 2024 sales, management, and R&D expense ratios improved, with management and R&D expense ratios decreasing by 0.9 and 0.12 percentage points, respectively [6] - The company's operational efficiency is expected to improve, with total asset turnover projected to increase from 0.45 in 2023 to 0.69 by 2026 [10] - Crystal Optech's cash flow from operations is forecasted to grow from 1.23 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.912 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting strong operational performance [11]