食品饮料行业2024年三季报综述：白酒增速趋缓，零食和软饮料业绩较优

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector faced overall pressure in Q3 2024, continuing a trend of performance divergence among sub-sectors. The total revenue for listed companies in the food and beverage sector reached 828.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.91%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 179.24 billion yuan, up 10.43% year-on-year [1][7] - In Q3 2024, the sector generated revenue of 262.74 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.28%, and net profit of 50.89 billion yuan, a 2.26% increase year-on-year. Compared to Q2 2024, revenue growth decreased by 0.47 percentage points, and net profit growth fell by 8.36 percentage points, indicating a significant decline [1][7] Summary by Sections 1. Performance and Market Review - The food and beverage sector's performance in Q3 2024 showed a decline, with revenue growth slowing down compared to Q2. The overall market sentiment was low at the beginning of 2024, but there was a brief recovery due to seasonal demand during the Spring Festival and subsequent events [13][16] 2. Sub-sector Analysis 2.1 Baijiu - The baijiu sector experienced weak demand, with revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reaching 337.72 billion yuan, a 9.24% increase year-on-year. However, Q3 revenue was 95.64 billion yuan, growing only 0.53% year-on-year, indicating a significant slowdown [16][17] 2.2 Beer - The beer sector faced challenges, with revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 declining by 1.91% year-on-year, totaling 60.82 billion yuan. Q3 revenue dropped by 3.26% year-on-year [8][16] 2.3 Snacks - The snack sector showed strong performance, with revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 increasing by 58.03% year-on-year, reaching 51.43 billion yuan. Q3 revenue also grew by 58.02% year-on-year [8][16] 2.4 Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector maintained positive growth, with Q1-Q3 revenue increasing by 12.52% year-on-year to 26.88 billion yuan. Q3 revenue grew by 9.14% year-on-year [2][8] 2.5 Dairy Products - The dairy sector saw a slight decline in revenue for Q1-Q3 2024, down 8.77% year-on-year, totaling 140.70 billion yuan. However, Q3 showed marginal improvement with a 1.36% increase in net profit [2][8] 2.6 Processed Foods - The processed food sector faced significant pressure, with revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 declining by 2.04% year-on-year, totaling 29.45 billion yuan. Q3 revenue also fell by 3.35% year-on-year [2][8] 2.7 Condiments - The condiment sector experienced positive growth, with Q1-Q3 revenue increasing by 7.19% year-on-year to 50.25 billion yuan. Q3 revenue grew by 9.55% year-on-year [2][8] 3. Investment Recommendations - Investment direction one: Focus on the cyclical baijiu sector, recommending companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [2] - Investment direction two: Look for marginal improvements in the dairy sector and the restaurant supply chain, recommending companies like Yili and Haitian Flavoring [2] - Investment direction three: Align with the trend of high-end cost-effective consumption, focusing on companies in the soft drink and snack sectors [2]