M2增速出现双重背离的原因

Group 1: M2 Growth Divergence - In October, M2 year-on-year growth rose from 6.8% to 7.5%, despite a decline in social financing and credit growth[4] - Social financing stock growth fell from 8.0% in September to 7.8% in October, influenced by high base effects from last year's special refinancing bonds[4] - Loan balance year-on-year growth slightly decreased from 8.1% to 8.0%, indicating continued pressure on credit performance[4] Group 2: Structural Highlights in Credit - October saw a year-on-year increase in resident loans for the first time since January, with both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans improving[9] - The real estate market showed signs of recovery, with transaction volumes in 30 cities catching up to last year's levels, boosting housing loan scales[9] - M1 year-on-year growth recorded its first increase of the year, suggesting a shift in investor risk preferences[11] Group 3: Deposit and Fiscal Dynamics - M2 growth diverged from deposit growth, as fiscal deposits surged due to last year's bond issuance, affecting the current year's deposit dynamics[5] - Fiscal deposits in October were less than half of last year's levels, impacting the correlation between M2 and deposit growth[5] - The increase in M2 was supported by a return of funds from wealth management products, aligning with the overall improvement in M2 growth trends[10] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions and unexpected increases in international oil prices[13]