2024Q3锂电材料行业趋势：量价抵抗逐步显现，当前如何看待行业拐点？

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric equipment industry is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report identifies a gradual clarity in the turning point of the lithium battery materials industry, with different segments experiencing varying rhythms of change [3][5] - Demand for domestic power batteries saw a cumulative installation growth rate of +35.6% year-on-year from January to September 2024, while the average single vehicle battery capacity for new energy passenger cars decreased by approximately 0.6 kWh compared to 2023 [1][6] - Supply-side resistance in certain segments, such as copper foil, is becoming clearer, indicating a potential shift in the industry dynamics [7][8] - The overall profitability of the industry remains under pressure, with significant losses reported in the iron lithium and copper foil segments, leading to a net profit margin of -3.42% for copper foil and -3.31% for iron lithium in Q3 2024 [10][12] Demand Summary - Cumulative sales of power and other batteries in China reached 685.7 GWh from January to September 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 42.5% [6] - The cumulative installation of power batteries was 346.6 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.6% [6] Supply Summary - The supply side has shown signs of resistance, with marginal changes becoming evident in segments like copper foil [7] - The report notes that the industry is experiencing a phase of destocking, with inventory levels currently at a rational position [22] Profitability Summary - The report highlights that the iron lithium segment continues to face significant losses, with only a few companies maintaining profitability [12] - The overall net profit margin for the industry in Q3 2024 was negative, with copper foil and iron lithium segments reporting net profit margins of -3.42% and -3.31%, respectively [10][12] Cash Flow Summary - The overall cash flow situation for the industry has turned negative for the first time since Q3 2020, with a year-on-year decline of -9% in cash on hand minus short-term borrowings [13][14] - Excluding CATL, the industry's cash flow situation worsened significantly, with a year-on-year decline of -66% [13] Capital Expenditure Summary - The overall capital expenditure in the industry continued to decline year-on-year, with a 16% decrease noted in Q3 2024 compared to Q3 2023 [19][20] - Different segments are adjusting their capital expenditure at varying paces, with some segments like iron lithium and separators showing a slower adjustment rhythm [20] Inventory Summary - The current inventory levels are considered rational, with the industry in the tail end of a destocking phase [22]