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煤炭行业周报:日耗逐步提升&政策预期偏强,旺季行情有望释放
Xiangcai Securities·2024-11-12 10:26

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [7] Core Insights - The coal sector saw a 1.95% increase last week, but underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 5.5% [2] - Domestic thermal coal prices slightly decreased, while international prices remained stable. As of November 11, the domestic price for Q5500 thermal coal was 860 CNY/ton, a 0.53% decrease week-on-week [3] - The supply of thermal coal is tightening due to increased safety inspections in major producing regions, while demand is expected to rise as heating season begins in northern China [3] - Domestic coking coal prices have decreased, but international prices have increased. The price for main coking coal in Guizhou was 1800 CNY/ton, down 5.26% week-on-week [4] - The report suggests that the demand for thermal coal is likely to increase as the heating season starts, indicating potential price increases [5][39] Summary by Sections Market Review - The coal sector's PE valuation is at 12.1 times, within the 63.9% percentile over the past decade, while the PB valuation is at 1.4 times, within the 53.7% percentile [2] Thermal Coal Insights - Domestic thermal coal prices have slightly decreased, with a current price of 860 CNY/ton, while international prices remain stable [3] - Daily consumption of coal in power plants is increasing, with a reported daily consumption of 3.352 million tons, up 2.38% week-on-week [3] Coking Coal Insights - Domestic coking coal prices have decreased, with the main coking coal price in Guizhou at 1800 CNY/ton, while international prices have seen an increase [4] - The report anticipates a potential stabilization in domestic coking coal prices due to strong policy expectations [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading coal companies with strong resource endowments and coking coal companies that are undervalued and have strong performance potential [5][39]