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创新药行业周报:国产创新药海外市场持续放量,看好国际化新周期
Xiangcai Securities·2024-11-12 10:26

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Buy" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the next 6-12 months with expected returns exceeding the market benchmark by over 15% [6][21]. Core Insights - The global biotechnology sector is experiencing a rebound, benefiting from overseas interest rate cuts, with A-share biotechnology, NASDAQ biotechnology, and Hang Seng biotechnology indices rising by 7.4%, 4.1%, and 2.8% respectively [3][9]. - Domestic innovative drugs are seeing significant growth in overseas markets, with Takeda achieving overseas sales of $203 million for furmonertinib and Hutchison China MediTech receiving $20 million in milestone payments [4][20]. - The investment logic is shifting from revenue growth to profitability, with overseas licensing deals and product launches driving profit realization [5][20]. - The domestic innovative drug industry is entering a new internationalization cycle, supported by a robust ecosystem of policies, talent, and capital established during the 13th Five-Year Plan [21]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The biotechnology sector has shown a median price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.9X as of November 8, indicating it is below one standard deviation from the mean [3][9]. - Among 85 sample innovative drug companies, the median price change was 4.2%, with 53 companies showing gains [3][9]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on two main investment themes: 1. Pharma companies transitioning to innovation, which have strong performance resilience and are entering a period of revenue realization [5][20]. 2. Biotech companies with ongoing growth and potential for overseas product registrations [5][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks based on clinical demand, technological platforms, and product strength [5][21]. Long-term Outlook - The innovative drug sector is expected to undergo a transformation and upgrade, with a focus on high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan [21]. - The overall performance trend for the sector is improving, supported by favorable macro policies and a shift towards profitability [21].