东兴证券：东兴晨报-20241112

Group 1: Company Overview - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that Poly Developments maintains a solid leading position in the real estate industry, focusing on a "central city + urban agglomeration" strategy, with a sales ranking that has risen to first place in the industry [1][2] - In H1 2024, the company achieved a contracted sales amount of 173.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 26.8%, while its market share increased from 2.94% in 2021 to 3.68% in H1 2024 [1][2] - The company has significantly reduced its land acquisition intensity, with a new project land price to sales amount ratio dropping to 7.3% in H1 2024, while focusing on high-energy cities [1][2] Group 2: Land and Project Development - The company has been actively reducing its land reserve scale while enhancing the quality of its land reserves, with the proportion of high-energy cities in its ongoing projects increasing to 68.1% by the end of H1 2024 [2] - The proportion of new construction projects in high-energy cities has also risen, reaching 67.4% by the end of H1 2024 [2] - The company’s unsold land reserve area was 130.46 million square meters at the end of H1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.9% [2] Group 3: Financial Performance and Forecast - The report forecasts that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will be 11.04 billion yuan, 11.55 billion yuan, and 13.17 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.92, 0.97, and 1.10 yuan [3] - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 346.83 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23.4%, and the real estate business revenue was 322.5 billion yuan, growing by 25.7% [4] Group 4: Banking Sector Overview - The banking sector has shown an improvement in profitability, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 1.43% in the first three quarters of 2024, and a revenue decline of only 1.05% [6][22] - The net interest margin has narrowed its decline, benefiting from improved liability costs, with most banks experiencing a reduction in margin decline of 0-5 basis points compared to the first half of the year [8][24] - The overall asset quality remains stable, with the non-performing loan ratio holding steady at 1.25% as of the end of Q3 2024 [26] Group 5: Market Trends and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that bank stocks are in a favorable position due to low valuations and stable dividend yields, recommending a focus on high-growth stocks in strong economic regions [27] - The anticipated stabilization of net interest margins and improvement in asset quality are expected to enhance bank profitability forecasts [26][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing fiscal policies and their potential impact on the real estate market, indicating a shift from stabilization to proactive measures [30]