银行行业10月金融数据点评：关注居民户贷款改善的持续性，M1增速年内首次回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [1][22][23]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a marginal recovery in M1 growth for the first time this year, alongside improvements in household loan demand, suggesting a potential stabilization in the banking sector [2][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government bond issuance in supporting social financing, with an expected increase in local government debt issuance to replace hidden debts, which could further bolster social financing growth [2][6]. - The report notes that while bank net interest margins may face short-term pressure due to a broad decline in interest rates, the re-pricing of high-interest deposits will provide crucial support to interest margins [18][19]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Loan Growth - In October 2024, social financing grew by 7.8% year-on-year, with a monthly increase of 1.3958 trillion yuan, although this was a decrease of 4.483 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2][6]. - The report indicates that household loans saw a year-on-year increase for the first time since February, driven by policy support that has revitalized consumption and housing demand [9][10]. Government Debt and Financing Structure - The report discusses a decrease in government debt issuance by 5.142 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to high base effects from the previous year [2][6]. - It mentions that the recent approval of an additional 6 trillion yuan in local government debt limits is expected to facilitate a significant increase in government bond issuance, which will support social financing growth [2][6]. M1 and M2 Growth Trends - M1 growth showed a year-on-year decline of 6.1% but rebounded by 1.3 percentage points month-on-month, while M2 grew by 7.5% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in risk appetite among investors [13][14]. - The report highlights that the increase in non-bank deposits and the active stock market have contributed to the rise in M2, while household deposits have decreased slightly, reflecting a shift in asset allocation [13][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional banks that are likely to benefit from debt restructuring logic, recommending stocks such as Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Jiangsu Bank for investment [18][19]. - It also identifies cyclical banking stocks as potential investment opportunities, including Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank, which are expected to perform well in the current economic environment [18][19].