母婴行业深度：预计24-25年促生育政策密集落地

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that from 2024 onwards, a series of pro-natalist policies are expected to be implemented, significantly benefiting the maternal and infant industry [6][7] - The construction of a pro-natalist society is the main theme of China's fertility policy, which is anticipated to lead to a rebound in birth rates, positively impacting four main lines of the maternal and infant industry [7] Summary by Sections 1. Review of China's Fertility Policy - The evolution of China's fertility policy has gone through four major stages since 1949, with significant effects on birth rates during earlier phases, but ongoing policy support is necessary for sustained impact [6] - Recent trends show a decline in birth rates, with 2023 recording only 9.02 million births, down from previous years [6] - The period from 2024 to 2025 is expected to see a concentrated rollout of supportive measures, including insurance coverage for assisted reproduction and increased subsidies for childbirth [6][7] 2. Beneficiaries of the Pro-Natalist Policies - The maternal and infant industry is expected to benefit from the following sectors: 1. Assisted reproduction and postpartum care, with companies like Jinxin Reproductive and Aidi Palace leading the market [7] 2. Maternal and infant retail, with major players like Kidswant and Aiyingshi expanding their store networks [7] 3. Maternal and infant products, including companies like Goodbaby International and HAOYUE Healthcare [7] 4. Maternal and infant food, with China Feihe being a notable example [7] 3. Policy Measures and Support - The report outlines various supportive measures being implemented, including: - Inclusion of assisted reproductive services in health insurance, which is expected to reduce costs by over 15% [6][46] - Increasing birth subsidies, which currently focus on second and third children but may expand to include first-child subsidies [6][49] - Enhancing childcare policies to increase the availability of affordable childcare services [6][61] 4. Market Dynamics and Growth Projections - The maternal and infant market is projected to grow significantly as policies take effect, with companies in assisted reproduction, retail, and product sectors expected to see substantial revenue increases [7][71] - For instance, Kidswant is forecasted to achieve revenues of 9.92 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.38% [71][72]