CTS Logistics(603128) 中银证券·2024-11-12 13:36Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][2] Core Views - The company has seen significant revenue growth due to rising shipping rates and the establishment of new overseas operational sites, despite a decline in net profit due to fluctuating costs [2] - The company's marketing-driven strategy is expected to enhance operational resilience and improve long-term performance [2] - Future operational efficiency is anticipated to improve as international shipping rates stabilize, benefiting from a market environment that favors leading logistics firms [2] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 14.417 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 38.64%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 472 million RMB, down 16.31% [2] - In Q3 2024, revenue reached 5.817 billion RMB, up 51.54% year-on-year, with net profit of 169 million RMB, a decrease of 20.55% [2] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 678 million RMB, 792 million RMB, and 896 million RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.52 RMB, 0.60 RMB, and 0.68 RMB [3][4] Market Performance - The company's stock price has underperformed relative to the market, with a year-to-date decline of 17.3% [1] - The stock's performance is rated as "stronger than the market" within its sector [1] Valuation Metrics - The report projects a PE ratio of 12.0, 10.3, and 9.1 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][4] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 8.155 billion RMB [1] Operational Strategy - The company is expanding its overseas operational network in regions such as South America and Central Asia, which is expected to enhance product stability and market coverage [2] - The direct customer strategy is aimed at smoothing out cyclical fluctuations and improving business resilience [2] Industry Outlook - The logistics industry is entering a phase of consolidation, favoring companies that can provide comprehensive logistics services [2] - The report suggests that as the logistics market stabilizes, stronger firms will likely emerge, enhancing competitive dynamics [2]