从“三阶段”缺口视角看银行资产质量和拨备水平：风险分类新规迎过渡期末年，上市银行“三阶段”缺口压力如何？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry in China [3] Core Insights - The domestic banking sector is entering a low net interest margin environment, with revenue growth expected to remain low in the short to medium term due to supportive monetary policy from the central bank. Cost control, particularly credit costs, is crucial for stabilizing profit growth and return on equity (ROE) [8][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the execution of new regulatory policies during the transition period, particularly regarding the recognition of non-performing loans and the pressure for provisioning [8][29] - The new risk classification regulations, effective from July 1, 2023, represent a significant update to the previous five-level classification system, expanding the scope of financial assets subject to risk classification and establishing overdue days as a key quantitative standard [22][24] Summary by Sections Institutional Changes Review - The provisioning methods for banks have evolved from a unified ratio method (1998-2001) to a five-level classification method (2002-2017), and now to an expected loss method (2018-present). This evolution has significantly enhanced the independence of provisioning calculations [10][15] - The new risk classification method introduced in 2023 broadens the range of financial assets subject to classification from loans to all assets, with overdue days becoming a core standard [20][22] Assessment of Non-Performing Loan Recognition - The report indicates that the balance of non-performing loans should gradually align with the balance of stage three loans under the new risk classification regulations. The "three-stage gap" (stage three loan balance minus non-performing loan balance) is used to assess the adequacy of non-performing loan recognition [24] - The findings show that joint-stock banks and some regional city commercial banks have relatively insufficient non-performing loan recognition, with a total three-stage gap of approximately 82 billion yuan [24][25] Real Provisioning Levels - The report assesses the provisioning coverage ratio for stage three assets among listed banks, highlighting that joint-stock banks and some city commercial banks have relatively low coverage ratios. For instance, Minsheng, Pudong, and Huaxia banks have coverage ratios below 150% [28][29] - As of the first half of 2024, the overall provisioning coverage ratio for stage three assets among listed banks is approximately 217%, indicating that even if risks worsen, the pressure to increase provisions for certain banks remains limited, supporting stable profit growth [29]