Maximizing Output and Government Revenues from Mining in Developing Countries

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the mining industry in developing countries, but it emphasizes the need for improved governance and reduced political risk to enhance investment attractiveness. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of political risk on mining investment decisions, project sizes, and the volume of ore mined, particularly for green minerals essential for energy transition [5][51] - It advocates for a progressive profit tax on mining revenues as an optimal approach to tax extraction, which would generate government revenues while minimally deterring investment [5][13] - The analysis indicates that low-quality governance and institutions in developing countries hinder the exploration and exploitation of critical minerals like copper, leading to suboptimal global production and lost revenues for host countries [5][11] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the economics of mining projects and the importance of capturing resource rents through taxation by host nations, particularly focusing on green minerals critical for energy transformation [5][6] Section 1: Dispelling Resource Rent Myths - It clarifies that resource rents can be difficult to measure and that taxation should focus on stable profits rather than unmeasurable resource rents [15][26] - The report argues against taxing resource rents on an ex-ante or ex-post basis, suggesting that stable, modest profits taxes are more effective [13][24] Section 2: Resource Rent and Surplus at Mining Projects - A theoretical model is presented to compute resource rents and analyze the impact of political risk on mining project investment and operational decisions [56][57] - The report emphasizes that the computation of rent depends on whether the capital employed is reversible or irreversible, affecting investment decisions [57] Political Risk and Investment - The report identifies that political risk is a significant factor influencing investment decisions, with projects in politically risky countries requiring higher returns to justify investment [7][9] - It suggests that reducing political risk through improved governance and infrastructure can unlock exploration and increase production from identified mineral deposits [5][12] Future Demand for Green Minerals - The report anticipates a substantial increase in demand for critical energy-transition metals by 2030, which could lead to higher prices and increased mining activity in developing countries [51][52] - However, it cautions that current global policies for decarbonization are lacking, which may hinder the anticipated growth in mining rents [53][54]