商贸零售行业11月投资策略暨三季报总结：行业基本面压力仍存，盈利分化下龙头韧性相对强劲

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail sector [1][40]. Core Insights - The overall consumption recovery in 2024 has been steady, with a 3.3% year-on-year growth in social retail sales for the first three quarters, showing a slowdown from 3.7% in the first half of the year [6][40]. - Online consumption remains stable, while offline performance continues to decline, with major retail formats experiencing varying degrees of revenue drop [1][40]. - The beauty and personal care sector shows stable performance during the sales off-season, but profit differentiation among companies has intensified [23][40]. - The gold and jewelry sector faces pressure from rising gold prices, leading to a 3.1% year-on-year decline in retail sales for the first three quarters [31][40]. - Cross-border e-commerce continues to grow rapidly, with companies maintaining high revenue growth despite varying profit performances [37][40]. Summary by Sections Industry Data Review - The overall consumption recovery is expected to gradually improve with policy support, with retail sales reaching 35.4 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [6][40]. Online Consumption - Online retail sales grew by 8.6% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024, but this is a slowdown from 9.8% in the first half [11][40]. - Major platforms like Tmall, JD, and Douyin showed mixed growth rates, with Tmall and JD experiencing declines [14][40]. Offline Consumption - Offline retail formats such as supermarkets and convenience stores showed slight growth, while department stores and specialty shops faced declines [16][40]. - Companies like Chongqing Department Store and Yonghui Supermarket are exploring new growth drivers through mergers and acquisitions [40]. Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty sector saw a 1.0% year-on-year decline in retail sales, with domestic brands like Proya and Marubi showing strong performance [23][40]. - The medical beauty sector is experiencing pressure from price competition, but companies leveraging new materials are performing better [27][40]. Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector's retail sales declined by 3.1% year-on-year, with rising gold prices suppressing consumer demand [31][40]. - Companies like Mankalon and China Gold are adapting to market conditions, with some showing revenue growth despite overall sector challenges [33][40]. Cross-Border E-commerce - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached 1.88 trillion yuan, growing by 11.5% year-on-year [37][40]. - Companies like Xiaoshangpin and Anker Innovation are experiencing significant revenue growth, driven by product expansion and channel diversification [38][40].