建材行业深度报告：水泥供给侧的过去、当下和未来

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the cement industry, indicating optimism about future performance [4] Core Views - The cement industry has completed a round of process upgrades, leaving no strictly backward production capacity. Past supply-side reforms were achieved through production restrictions, and in the post-reform era, the industry has extended profitability through self-disciplined production cuts [1] - The industry is currently at a bottom, with a strong consensus on cooperation to improve profitability. Significant price elasticity has been observed in major markets such as North China, Northeast China, and the Yangtze River Delta in 2024 [1] - Looking ahead, the industry's supply side is expected to improve further under the constraints of overproduction governance and carbon trading, with close attention to the effects of policy implementation [1] Past: Production Reduction Rather Than Capacity Reduction - From 2000 to 2010, the cement industry underwent a significant process upgrade, with the proportion of new dry process cement reaching 98% by 2015. This left no strictly backward production capacity, only differences in the scale of production lines [4] - From 2015 to 2024, the industry maintained stable profitability, with annual new and eliminated clinker capacity remaining within 50 million tons, and the total design capacity staying around 1.7 billion tons [5] - The 2016-2017 supply-side reform cycle was driven by top-down environmental production restrictions, with regional impacts more pronounced in the Yangtze River Delta and North China [5] Present: Bottoming Out and Profit Recovery - Under the dual pressures of a declining real estate cycle and infrastructure constraints, cement demand has been under pressure for three consecutive years, with a 30% drop compared to historical peaks by 2024. The industry is expected to face widespread losses in 24Q3 [6] - Despite this, the industry has seen active cooperation, with significant price increases in Northeast and North China in 2024H1, followed by further price hikes in South China and the Yangtze River Delta in Q3. The Yangtze Delta saw a price increase of 100 yuan in October, successfully achieving profit recovery [6] Future: Quota Production and New Supply Cycle - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released new regulations in 2024, emphasizing the unification of registered and actual production capacity. This may force some overcapacity production lines to supplement quotas, leading to a certain level of supply reduction [7] - Cement is a major carbon emitter, and the industry is expected to be included in the national carbon trading market by 2025. The intensity control approach will differentiate constraints based on energy consumption levels, potentially accelerating the exit of high-energy-consuming enterprises and benefiting those with energy efficiency advantages [7] Regional and Structural Analysis - The industry has seen significant regional price elasticity, with the Yangtze River Delta experiencing four price hikes in 2024, though only the October increase was successfully implemented. The region's open market and large capacity make cooperation challenging [47] - The Northeast region, particularly Liaoning, implemented strict production restrictions in 2024, leading to a price surge to over 400 yuan/ton, driven by disciplined production cuts [44] Carbon Trading and Future Constraints - The cement industry is expected to be included in the national carbon trading market by 2025, with intensity control measures potentially accelerating the exit of high-energy-consuming enterprises and benefiting those with energy efficiency advantages [64] - The industry's carbon emissions are significant, with cement production being a major contributor due to the decomposition of calcium carbonate and the use of coal as a core fuel [62]