宏观大类日报：关注特朗普政策预期

Market Analysis - The U.S. election results indicate a potential Trump administration with Republican control of both houses, which may lead to policies that increase inflation through tax cuts and tariffs[3] - Trump's policies are expected to push for increased energy production and exports, potentially stabilizing inflation while also raising the dollar value due to trade policies[3] - The report highlights a significant reduction in local hidden debt from CNY 14.3 trillion to CNY 2.3 trillion by 2028, indicating improved debt management and fiscal health[3] Commodity Insights - Precious metals are recommended for buying on dips, while other commodities are viewed neutrally[3] - The report suggests a strong outlook for gold due to trade tensions, interest rate cuts, and rising inflation expectations, despite potential short-term adjustments post-election[4] - The oil market is expected to face oversupply pressures due to OPEC's increased production and accelerated energy transition, maintaining a bearish outlook[5] Economic Indicators - M2 growth has rebounded, indicating signs of credit market expansion, which is positive for domestic economic expectations[4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, with current projections indicating a reduction of 87 basis points by the end of 2025, down from 183 basis points earlier this year[4] - The report notes that in previous rate-cutting cycles, commodities generally faced downward pressure, but gold managed to yield positive returns[4]