兼论近期AH走势的背离：特朗普1.0时期对华政策回顾

Group 1: Trade and Technology Policies - During Trump's first term, the focus of U.S. restrictions on China was primarily on foreign trade and technology industries, with significant tariffs imposed on machinery and electrical equipment[2] - From July 2018 to September 2019, the U.S. implemented four rounds of tariffs on $500 billion worth of Chinese goods, with the most significant impact on emerging manufacturing sectors[2][16] - The U.S. government prohibited American companies from supplying key components to Chinese firms and restricted Chinese investments in critical U.S. technology sectors[2][18] Group 2: Market Resilience and Strategic Outlook - Despite potential intensification of Trump's policies in his second term, China's technology sector has significantly improved its risk resilience compared to 2018, with R&D intensity rising from 2.14% to 2.65% of GDP by mid-2024[3][21] - The proportion of China's exports to the U.S. decreased from 19% in 2018 to 14.6% in 2024, while exports to ASEAN increased from under 13% to 16.1%[21] - A-share market risk appetite is expected to be less sensitive to external shocks, suggesting a strategic confidence in navigating potential challenges from U.S. policies[3][21] Group 3: Tactical Considerations and Market Dynamics - Tactical caution is advised as A-share market sentiment may experience volatility during the implementation of U.S. restrictions, impacting corporate earnings expectations and stock performance[3][27] - The divergence in performance between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks reflects different trading logics, with A-shares driven by domestic sentiment and small-cap growth stocks, while Hong Kong stocks are influenced by foreign capital concerns regarding U.S.-China relations[4][30] - From November 1 to November 11, A-share financing balance increased by 132 billion yuan, indicating strong market sentiment, while Hong Kong stocks faced pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields[4][30]