钢铁行业周报：供需双弱，化债方案有望带来预期改善

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][6][27] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is experiencing a dual decline in supply and demand, leading to a weakening of production momentum among steel mills. The overall market is expected to see a slight downward adjustment in steel prices due to traditional seasonal demand weakness [4][6][26] - Despite the current weak demand, the implementation of a debt reduction plan is anticipated to alleviate local fiscal pressures, potentially improving expectations for the black industrial chain in the long term [4][6] - The steel industry is entering a phase characterized by "reduction in quantity and optimization of stock," indicating a shift towards high-quality development and regional capacity consolidation [6][27] Summary by Sections Market Review - The steel sector rose by 5.01% last week, underperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 0.49 percentage points. The sector's PE ratio is at 16.2 times, in the 66.3 percentile over the past decade, while the PB ratio is at 1 time, in the 34.8 percentile [3][4] Supply and Demand - Supply: The total output of five major steel products decreased, with a high furnace operating rate of 82.27%, down 0.19 percentage points week-on-week. The total output of five major steel products was 8.6161 million tons, a decrease of 0.65% week-on-week [4][5] - Demand: The weekly consumption of five major products was 8.776 million tons, down 1.6% from the previous week. The consumption of construction materials decreased by 4.6%, while the consumption of sheet materials increased by 0.2% [4][6] - Inventory: Total inventory of five major steel products was 12.349 million tons, down 1.94% week-on-week, indicating a loosening supply-demand balance [4][5] Price and Profitability - The price index for five major steel products showed mixed results, with rebar prices at 3621 CNY/ton, down 0.41% week-on-week. The profitability of 247 sample steel companies was 59.73%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points, marking the first time in a month below 60% [5][6] Investment Recommendations - Short-term outlook suggests a weakening fundamental environment due to seasonal demand decline, while long-term prospects remain positive with macro policies supporting debt reduction and domestic demand expansion. The industry is expected to see a phase of price rebound opportunities [6][27]