10月外贸数据点评：短期扰动消除，增速超预期

Export Performance - In October, exports increased by 12.7% year-on-year in USD terms, significantly exceeding market expectations of 5.1%[9] - The trade surplus expanded to $95.72 billion in October, up from$24.6 billion in the previous month[9] - Exports to developed economies rebounded, with significant increases to the EU (from 1.3% to 12.7%) and the US (from 2.2% to 8.1%)[12] Product Analysis - Machinery and electrical products contributed the most to export growth, with a 13.7% increase, adding 8.3 percentage points to overall export growth[15] - Agricultural products saw a notable rebound with a 10.9% increase, contributing 0.3 percentage points to export growth[15] - High-tech products also turned positive with a 9.1% increase, contributing 2.5 percentage points to export growth[15] Import Trends - Imports decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in October, falling short of market expectations of a 0.02% increase[20] - The decline in imports was attributed to low commodity prices and delayed effects of domestic policy measures[20] - Agricultural imports turned negative with a -4.91% growth rate, significantly impacting overall import growth[20] Tariff Impact - Short-term effects of Trump's tariff policies are limited, with potential "export rush" providing temporary support[23] - Long-term projections suggest a 63% decline in exports to the US if tariffs increase to 60%, potentially reducing exports by approximately 9.5% based on October's figures[23] Risks - Risks include unexpected changes in overseas policies and the potential ineffectiveness of domestic policy measures[26]