中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：银行角度看10月社融：居民端投放边际回暖，流动性有所改善-20241113

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a supportive monetary policy stance, with a focus on price targets rather than quantity targets to promote reasonable price recovery and stabilize interest margins [2][3] - The report highlights a marginal recovery in household financing, with improved liquidity conditions as evidenced by the increase in social financing [2][3] Social Financing Analysis - In October, social financing increased by 1.4 trillion, which is 448.3 billion less than the same period last year, aligning with market expectations [3] - The structure of social financing shows that while October is typically a low month for credit, policy measures have led to some recovery in real estate sales, contributing to a relative improvement in household financing [3] - Government bond financing continues to support social financing, with new government bond issuance of 1.05 trillion in October, although this is 514.2 billion less than the previous year due to a high base effect [3] Credit Situation - New loans in October amounted to 500 billion, which is 238.4 billion less than the previous year, falling short of market expectations [3] - Household credit has shown a positive turn, with marginal improvements in short-term and medium-to-long-term loans compared to the previous year [3] - The report indicates that corporate loans are expected to increase due to government bond issuance and infrastructure projects, with a notable shift in the credit structure [3] Liquidity Conditions - The report notes a recovery in M2 growth rate, with M0 and M1 showing improvements as well, indicating better market liquidity [3] - Total deposits increased by 7% year-on-year, although there was a decline in both household and corporate deposits [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality city commercial banks with debt-restructuring benefits, particularly those with strong fundamentals and low valuations [2][3] - Recommendations include Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and others, with a focus on core assets if economic expectations improve [2][3]