铜行业深度报告：供需视角：历史新高或是起点，看好未来长期表现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the copper industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The copper price reached a historical high in May 2024, driven by multiple macroeconomic and supply-demand factors [4]. - Supply disruptions are ongoing, with limited future increases in copper mine output anticipated [4]. - Demand remains stable, with positive expectations for growth driven by the renewable energy and power sectors [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Copper Price Review - The copper price experienced four phases in 2024: 1. Early January to early March saw a sideways trend 2. From early March to mid-May, prices rose significantly 3. Mid-May to early August experienced a correction 4. From early August onwards, prices stabilized at high levels [17][18]. 2. Supply Side - Global copper mine output from January to August 2024 was approximately 14.874 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.97%, which is below the expected 3.7% [23]. - Key supply disruptions included the closure of the Cobre mine in Panama and operational halts at various mines due to legal and environmental issues [23][34]. - The expected growth rates for copper mine supply in 2024 and 2025 are 1.7% and 3.5%, respectively [34][37]. 3. Demand Side - Demand for copper has been stable, with consumption in the first eight months of 2024 reaching 17.788 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.14% [4]. - The renewable energy sector is expected to drive significant increases in copper consumption, with projected CAGR of 14.81% for solar energy from 2023 to 2026 and 19.78% for electric vehicles [4]. - The overall global copper demand is anticipated to recover, supported by increased investments in power infrastructure [4]. 4. Company Analysis - Zijin Mining holds the largest copper resource in China, with approximately 7.5 million tons as of the end of 2023 [4]. - In terms of production, Zijin Mining produced about 1.01 million tons of copper concentrate in 2023, leading the industry [4]. - The static reserve-to-production ratio for major companies indicates that Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining are in the top tier, with ratios of 74 years, 88 years, and 79 years, respectively [4].